Home Data Global Executive Dashboard Total National Health Expenditures What is the anticipated growth for healthcare Spending in the Future?

What is the anticipated growth for healthcare Spending in the Future?

Health spending as a percent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP), 2015 - 2021; projected 2022 - 2031

By 2031, it is projected that health spending will continue to represent almost one-fifth of the U.S. economy.

Source: National Health Expenditure Data, CMS

Annual change in per capita health spending, 1970s – 2021; projected 2022 – 2031

Healthcare spending experienced a significant slowdown in 2021 but is anticipated to bounce back in the years to come.

Source: National Health Expenditure Data, CMS

CMS projections of national health expenditures, in US $ trillions

Projections for health spending in 2030 are currently 20% below what the CMS had anticipated a decade ago.

Source: National Health Expenditure Data, CMS

Annual change in per capita prescription drug spending, 1970s - 2021; projected 2022 - 2031

Prescription drug spending witnessed a notable increase in growth in 2021 but is projected to decline to lower rates in the foreseeable future.

Source: National Health Expenditure Data, CMS

Out-of-pocket spending is expected to have grown by 3.8% per capita in 2022 and 4.4% per capita in 2023, but to drop to an average of 3.4% per capita for the following seven years.

Out-of-pocket spending per person rebounded in 2021 following a decline in 2020, but it is projected to stabilize in the future.

Source: National Health Expenditure Data, CMS

Annual change in per enrollee health spending, by payer, 2015-2021; projected 2022-2031

Per enrollee spending across all payers is anticipated to experience a short-term acceleration.

Source: National Health Expenditure Data, CMS

Annual change in total spending on hospitals, physicians and clinics, and retail prescription drugs, 2015 – 2021;
projected 2022 – 2031

The growth in prescription drug spending is anticipated to decrease, falling below that of hospital and physician services.

Source: National Health Expenditure Data, CMS

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